I think there are three milestones of stablecoin evolution now that the GENIUS Act is law. The first two will happen concurrently. The latter will happen after the first two occur. The latter is the most impactful in challenging current markets and creating new, greenfield opportunities. First, today the coins are not cash, and the world still runs (other than crypto trading) on cash. So if I go to a store to buy coffee and can now use stablecoin, the merchant taking that coin has to convert it to fiat to pay employees, suppliers, rent, etc. Entities (probably banks as they are structurally advantaged to do this) will provide redemption services – for a fee – for 24x7 swapping of coin to fiat. Second, the coins today are still IOUs and that poses issues. While the GENIUS Act requires coin issuers to back their coin with Treasuries, how will any holder actually know the Treasuries are thare at a given point in time? Treasuries – at least today – aren’t blockchain assets. The need to displace trust with truth – and the transactional benefits – will ultimately migrate Treasury issuance on chain. IOUs go away as everyone can verify reserves on chain. Once truth reigns over trust, coins are ubiquitous and fiat rails work 24x7, we will hit a pivotal moment where merchants don’t need to convert from coin to fiat – the third milestone. Employees, suppliers and landlords will all take coin as payment. Ironically, this eventually eliminates the need for fiat rails as there is no need to on/off board. Why does this matter? The third milestone will usher in a massive reallocation of banking liabilities (deposits). Some deposits will leave the system for good, moving to Treasuries. Others will migrate to the largest coin issuers (banks) who can hold reserves as deposits. Makes for a very difficult market for the other banks to compete in. There are other implications that are equally profound – notably interchange. Lots of change coming over the next few years. Buckle up!
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