if you talk to every investor up >80% this year at institutional scale they all have kind of the same view in private ai will not lead to super intelligent utopia, it’ll plateau far before then, but it will allow everyone to wirehead themselves on fake companionship, labor, etc

the question for the entire street is how do you invest in a “global opt out” in a way where the Qataris can still run billions with you. the answer seems to be to continuously talk about super intelligence and buy the precursors instead of the sin stocks directly

you’ve seen this kind of “motte and bailey” trade before when crypto was going to rewire the entire US financial system, and wasn’t actually just a way to loot retail for exit liquidity at scale that isn’t to say these models don’t have huge effects on cost structure

especially in the middle market, these models will allow businesses to fundamentally lower their cost structure and increase scale. this will just take a very long time to defuse across the economy for most companies. the returns in the short term will be in the form of sin