熱門話題
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Bonk 生態迷因幣展現強韌勢頭
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有消息稱 Pump.fun 計劃 40 億估值發幣,引發市場猜測
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Solana 新代幣發射平臺 Boop.Fun 風頭正勁
The Federal Reserve will announce the latest interest rate decision at 02:00 Beijing time on Thursday, followed by Powell's press conference at 02:30.
According to QCP Asia, the market generally expects:
A 25bp rate cut, with the rate range adjusted to 4.00–4.25%; the market has priced in a total of six rate cuts by 2026; investors will focus on the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the dot plot to gauge the pace of easing.
A simple interpretation:
1. Risk assets rebound in advance
The S&P and US tech stocks have strengthened first, but cryptocurrencies are relatively lagging, indicating that funds are still waiting for clear guidance.
2. Potential risk points
If the dot plot shows fewer rate cuts than expected in the future, or if Powell sends hawkish signals, the market may experience a short-term pullback.
If the statement is dovish, it may instead drive a rebound in cryptocurrencies.
From a trader's perspective, in the short term: there are significant volatility trading opportunities, focusing on the derivatives pricing of BTC/ETH before and after the FOMC meeting;
In the medium term: if the rate cut is confirmed and the pace is established, funds may gradually flow back into the cryptocurrency market, with high Beta assets like SOL and ETH likely to benefit first.
Overall, tonight's Federal Reserve meeting will become a key watershed for global risk assets in the second half of the year, looking forward to it.
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