" I just don't see how gold's not higher in 6 to 12 months" @qthomp

$45M sale after $327M loss! @Tyler_Neville_ 76% drawdown on “safe” CRE assets ↓

In our latest roundup, we broke down the fracturing K-shaped economy, why CRE & pensions are imploding, and the U.S.'s looming fiscal trainwreck. It all boils down to the financial repression endgame and where investors can hide ↓

I'm so bearish, I'm bullish. The commercial real estate sector is imploding in a lot of blue states and that means less tax dollars when they appraise all the other CRE buildings. At the same time those states have to allocate more money to their unfunded pensions which means less money for schools, police, firemen etc.... @RaoulGMI's pension crisis is upon us! The "short volatility" rentier-dollar-recycling system is broken! Do you think the Fed & Treasury will let everything reset or will they continue to dilute the currency and have negative real rates as far as the eye can see? Who wins when the short-vol insurance, pensions & endowments lose? There's only one thing I know....CRE is the inverse of Bitcoin;) @AndreasSteno Check it👇 @Blockworks_ @ForwardGuidance @fejau_inc @qthomp @MikeIppolito_ @JasonYanowitz

ICYMI: The Financial Repression Endgame! We Discuss: 🔶 Stephen Miran’s Fed board nomination 🔶 The meltdown in CRE & public pensions 🔶 How to trade different tariff scenarios 🔶 The impact of the TGA rebuild 🔶 The economy’s slow-moving trainwreck @Tyler_Neville_ @qthomp @fejau_inc Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 02:03 Market Whipsaw 03:10 Miran Fed Nomination 06:07 Where Are We Right Now? 10:19 CRE & Chicago Meltdown 16:50 VanEck Ad 17:35 Pension Crisis 22:17 Dependence on the Rich 26:29 Gaming Out Tariff Scenarios 32:59 VanEck Ad 33:43 Gaming Out Tariff Scenarios 36:52 Gold Demand & Bitcoin Reserve 40:28 TGA Rebuild 48:19 Negative Real Rates Incoming 50:14 Vanguard Bond Allocation 53:52 Our Slow-Moving Trainwreck 56:04 Final Thoughts Links Below ↓

🚀 NEW ROUNDUP: The Financial Repression Endgame! We Discuss:      🔶 Stephen Miran’s Fed board nomination 🔶 The meltdown in CRE & public pensions 🔶 How to trade different tariff scenarios 🔶 The impact of the TGA rebuild 🔶 The economy’s slow-moving trainwreck @Tyler_Neville_ @qthomp @fejau_inc Links Below ↓

Former Forward Guidance guest @SteveMiran was just nominated to the FOMC board to replace Adrian Kugler's seat until it ends in January 2026. Check out our interview with him here:

ICYMI: Markets Haven’t Priced In The End of Fiscal Tailwinds We Discuss: 🔶 Entering a contractionary fiscal impulse 🔶 Why QRA threw cold water, not gasoline 🔶 Fed leadership vacuum & September pivot odds 🔶 Why long bonds still can’t catch a bid 🔶 Stablecoin myths & marginal buyers of T-bills @dampedspring @fejau_inc Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:59 Fed Takeaways 09:42 VanEck AD 10:28 What Happens When Powell Leaves? 16:49 Treasury QRA Breakdown 22:24 Impact of Treasury Buybacks 26:27 TGA Rebuild & Liquidity 29:19 Fed Balance Sheet & Reinvestment Policy 30:23 VanEck Ad 31:03 Fed Balance Sheet & Reinvestment Policy 44:19 Tracking the Economic Data 51:03 Financial Conditions vs Growth 52:28 Making Sense of Market Pricing 57:06 Short vs Long Rates 59:09 Net Impact of Stablecoins 1:10:47 Final Thoughts Links Below ↓

Andy (@dampedspring) on the real stories in macro: global rotation, fiscal tightening, and bond supply ↓ Don't miss the forest for the trees!

Fed, Treasury, and President move as one unless inflation’s a real threat. And right now, @dampedspring says it’s not ↓